آنالیز ریسک‌های قراردادی در پروژه‌های زیربنایی حمل‌و‌نقل مبتنی بر روش مشارکت بخش عمومی- خصوصی (PPP)

پورافشار, امید; برمایه ور, بهنود; اسمعیل آبادی, رضا; اثنی عشری, احسان

doi:10.22091/cer.2021.7374.1299

آنالیز ریسک‌های قراردادی در پروژه‌های زیربنایی حمل‌و‌نقل مبتنی بر روش مشارکت بخش عمومی- خصوصی (PPP)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشجوی دکتری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد رودهن، گروه مهندسی عمران، رودهن، ایران

² استادیار، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه هنر، تهران، ایران

³ استادیار، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد رودهن، گروه مهندسی عمران، رودهن، ایران

⁴ دانشیار مهندسی عمران و دکتری مدیریت ساخت، دانشگاه ناتینگهام ترنت انگلستان

10.22091/cer.2021.7374.1299

چکیده

هدف مقاله حاضر، تحلیل جامع ریسک در پروژه‌های زیربنایی مبتنی بر مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی (PPP) براساس مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی در پروژه‌های حمل‌ونقلی می‌باشد. با تفکیک ریسک‌ها ازطریق تکنیک دلفی مبتنی بر نظرات خبرگان، 42 ریسک ساختاری و 41 ریسک عملکردی در 12 حوزه اصلی شامل ریسک‌های سیاسی، اقتصادی، قوانین (مقررات)، فرهنگی (اجتماعی)، محیطی (طبیعی)، آماده‌سازی (توسعه)، سرمایه‌گذاری، طراحی، ساخت (تکمیل)، بهره‌برداری، درآمد (بازار)، مدیریتی (سازمانی) شناسایی گردید. با ابزار پرسشنامه در یک نمونه آماری 80 نفری و تحلیل داده‌ها در نرم‌افزار SPSS، به غربالگری و تعیین ریسک‌های ارجح‌تر براساس آزمون‌های آماری شامل آزمون‌های کولموگروف- اسمیرنوف (K-S)، رتبه‌بندی کندال و تحلیل عاملی پرداخته شد. براساس نتایج، 36 زیرمؤلفه ریسک با میانگین کندال کمتر، حذف و 47 ریسک باقیمانده تحلیل گردید. همچنین با تحلیل عاملی، مؤلفه‌های اصلی بروز ریسک در این پروژه‌ها با توجه به بار عاملی متغیرهای اصلی (حوزه‌های 12گانه ریسک) شناسایی شد. نتایج شاخص KMO و آزمون کرویت بارتلت نشان داد که میان متغیرها ارتباط معنادار و همبستگی قوی وجود دارد. به‌طوری‌که پنج عامل نهفته شامل ریسک‌های دولتی، تأمین مالی، عملیاتی، اجتماعی و سازمانی با مقادیر ویژه بیشتر از یک، قابلیت تبیین 69.817 درصد از واریانس‌ها را دارا بودند. با توسعه رویکرد ارزیابی تلفیقی مبتنی بر شاخص اهمیت نسبی (RII) و ماتریس احتمال وقوع- شدت اثر (PI)، ریسک‌های بحرانی تعیین شدند. براساس نتایج، ریسک‌های قطع پرداخت‌ها توسط دولت، خاتمه قرارداد توسط دولت و لغو امتیاز قرارداد و فساد نظام دولتی در فرآیند انعقاد قرارداد، به‌ترتیب با PI برابر 0.2166، 0.2161 و 0.2003 در زمره ریسک‌های بحرانی شناسایی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Contract Risk Analysis in Transportation Infrastructure Projects Based on Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Method

نویسندگان [English]

Omid Pourafshar ¹
Behnod Barmayehvar ²
Reza Esmaeilabadi ³
Ehsan Asnaashari ⁴

¹ Department of Civil Engineering, Rudehen Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rudehen, Iran

² Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of Art, Tehran, Iran

³ Department of Civil Engineering, Rudehen Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rudehen, Iran

⁴ School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment, Nottingham Trent University

چکیده [English]

The present paper aimed to assess a comprehensive risk analysis in public-private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects using library studies and surveys in transportation infrastructure projects. By separating risks through Delphi technique based on expert opinions, 42 structural risks and 41 operational risks in 12 main areas including political, economic, laws (regulations), cultural (social), environmental (natural), preparation (development), investment, Design, construction (completion), operation, revenue (market), management (organizational) were identified. Then, using a questionnaire survey and data analysis in SPSS, screening and determining the preferred risks based on statistical tests including Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) tests, Kendall ranking and factor analysis were performed. Based on the results, 36 risks with lower Kendall mean were eliminated and the remaining 47 risks were analyzed. Also, by factor analysis, the main components affecting the incidence of risk in these projects were identified according to the factor load of the main variables (12 areas of risk). The results of KMO index and Bartlett sphericity test showed that there is a significant relationship and strong correlation between the variables. The five latent factors, including government, financing, operational, social and organizational risks with specific values greater than 1.0, were able to explain 69.817% of the variances. Critical risks were identified by developing an integrated assessment approach based on the Relative Significance Index (RII) and the occurrence-effect intensity (PI) matrix. According to the results, the risks of "interruption of payments by the government", "termination of the contract by the government and cancellation of the contract" and "corruption of the government system in the process of concluding the contract" with a PI of 0.2166, 0.2161 and 0.2003, respectively are among the critical risks were identified.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Contract Risk
Public-Private Partnership (PPP)
Transportation Infrastructure Projects
Risk Analysis (Probability-Intensity)

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