ارزیابی مکان یابی و مدیریت طرح توسعه در سکونتگاه های جدید در مناطق با خطر سیلاب: مطالعه موردی محدوده 560 هکتاری پردیسان قم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.

2 دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

3 دکتر جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه علوم و تحقیقات تهران

4 گروه پژوهشی شهرداری، قم، ایران

10.22091/cer.2025.11685.1586

چکیده

سطوح مخروط‌‌افکنه‌‌‌‌ای به‌دلیل حساس بودن به سیلاب، چالش‌‌های منحصر به فردی برای توسعه ایجاد می‌کند. محدوده پردیسان قم نیز در همین مناطق گسترش یافته و نیازمند مکان‌یابی و طرح توسعه است. برای این هدف، از یک روش جامع که شامل مدل‌سازی خطر سیل با HEC-RAS  است، استفاده شد و از روش SCS، دبی جریان یک رویداد سیل100 ساله محاسبه گردید. علاوه بر سیلاب، 13 معیار دیگر نیز طبق نظر کارشناسان برای ارزیابی تناسب زمین برای توسعه گنجانده‌‌ شد. این معیارها با استفاده از فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) همراه با منطق فازی تجزیه و تحلیل شدند و مقایسه دقیق سایت‌های بالقوه برای گسترش را فراهم آورد. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که علیرغم مدیریت آبخیزداری موجود، مناطق سکونتگاهی کنونی در پردیسان در برابر سیل آسیب‌پذیر بوده و به اندازه کافی چالش‌‌های حجم و رسوب ناشی از سیلاب‌‌های احتمالی را برطرف نمی‌‌کنند. این تحقیق، کاستی‌های اقدامات فعلی پیشگیری از سیل را برجسته و نیاز به استراتژی‌های بهبود یافته و مطالعات بیشتر را تأکید می‌کند. نتایج مدل FAHP، بخش جنوب شرقی پردیسان را به عنوان مناسب‌ترین منطقه برای توسعه شناسایی کرد که با طرح توسعه فعلی مغایرت دارد. این توصیه مبتنی بر ارزیابی کامل معیارهای مشخص شده است و به پتانسیل قابل توجهی برای گسترش هدفمند و بهینه شهری اشاره می‌‌کند. در نهایت، مشخص گردید که استفاده از مدل تلفیقی HECRAS-SCS-FAHP در توسعه مناطق شهری می‌تواند به عنوان یک نقشه راه مفید باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Location and Development Plan Management in New Settlements in Areas with Potential Flood Risk: A Case Study of the 560-Hectare Pardisan Site in Qom

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Mohammad Hossein Dehnad 1
  • Abolfazl Faraji Mondared 2
  • Mohammad Aghazadeh 3 4
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran.
2 Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
3 Doctor of Geography and Urban Planning, Tehran University of Science and Research,|Municipal Research Department, Qom, Iran
4 Doctor of Geography and Urban Planning, Tehran University of Science and Research,|Municipal Research Department, Qom, Iran
چکیده [English]

Due to their susceptibility to flooding, alluvial fan surfaces present unique challenges for development. The scope of Pardisan is also expanded in these areas, necessitating a comprehensive location and development plan. To address this, a robust methodology was employed, incorporating flood risk modeling using HEC-RAS and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method to calculate the flow rate of a 100-year flood event. In addition to the flood factor, 13 other criteria were included based on expert opinions to assess the suitability of the land for development. These criteria were analyzed using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in conjunction with fuzzy logic, facilitating an accurate comparison of potential sites for expansion. The findings reveal that, despite existing watershed management efforts, the current residential areas in Pardisan remain vulnerable to flooding and inadequately address the volume and sediment challenges posed by potential flood events. This research underscores the deficiencies in current flood prevention measures and highlights the necessity for enhanced strategies and further studies. The results of the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) model identified the southeastern part of Pardisan as the most suitable area for development, which contradicts the current development plan. This recommendation is based on a thorough evaluation of the specified criteria and indicates significant potential for targeted and optimal urban development. Finally, it is important to note that the integrated HEC-RAS-SCS-FAHP model can serve as a valuable roadmap for urban area development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • HECRAS-SCS-FAHP integrated model
  • flood
  • development plan
  • 560-hectare Qom site

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