ارزیابی و مدیریت ریسک پروژه ‏های تونل‌زنی از دیدگاه مخاطرات ژئوتکنیکی با استفاده از روش تحلیل درخت خطا: مطالعه موردی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، دانشکده مهندسی معدن، دانشگاه صنعتی ارومیه.

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد استخراج معدن، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر

3 استاد، دانشکده مهندسی معدن، دانشگاه صنعتی امیرکبیر.

4 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی استخراج معدن، دانشگاه یزد.

10.22091/cer.2020.5388.1200

چکیده

ارزیابی و مدیریت ریسک پروژه‏های تونل‌زنی از دیدگاه مخاطرات ژئوتکنیکی، یکی از گام‏های مهم و ضروری در طراحی و اجرا می‏باشد. قطعه دوم تونل امامزاده هاشم، یکی از طرح‏های بزرگ عمرانی در کشور محسوب می‌شود که به دلیل ساختار بد زمین‌شناسی و شرایط نامناسب ژئوتکنیکی در مسیر حفر تونل، طراحی این پروژه را با چالش‏های جدی روبه‌رو کرده است. در پژوهش حاضر، تلاش شده است تا پس از بررسی و انجام مطالعات زمین‌شناسی و ژئوتکنیکی در طول مسیر حفر تونل، میزان ریسک کلی طرح با استفاده از تحلیل درخت خطا مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. در طول انجام پژوهش، چهار مخاطره شامل آسیب به پرسنل، سیستم نگهداری، ماشین حفاری و انحراف از مسیر حفر با توجه مخاطرات ژئوتکنیکی محتمل در مسیر حفاری شامل برخورد با نواحی گسله و خردشده، مچاله‌شوندگی، هجوم آب و ناپایداری تونل مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. آسیب به دستگاه حفاری و آسیب به سیستم نگهداری با اعداد ریسک ۵۳۰۴ و ۵۲۳۰ به‌عنوان حوادث پرخطر به‌وجودآورنده ریسک کلی پروژه شناسایی شدند. مخاطرات ناشی از حضور گسل در منطقه و مچاله‌شوندگی دارای بیش‌ترین احتمال وقوع برابر با 20 درصد هستند. نتایج حاصل از بررسی‏ها حاکی از ریسک بالای پروژه، نشانگر این واقعیت است که نیاز به انجام اقدامات کنترلی و کاهنده به منظور کاهش ریسک، ضروری می‌باشد. پس از انجام اقدامات کاهنده و کاهش احتمال وقوع مخاطرات، مقدار ریسک کلی پروژه از محدوده ریسک به محدوده بی‌خطر (برابر با ۲۷۱) تقلیل پیدا کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation and Management of Geotechnical Risk in Tunneling Projects Using Fault Tree Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Mikaeil 1
  • Yavar Jalili Kashtiban 2
  • Kourosh Shahriar 3
  • Amir Jafarpour 4
1 Faculty of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, Urmia University of Technology
2 Department of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, AmirKabir University of Technology
3 Department of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, AmirKabir University of Technology.
4 Department of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, Yazd University.
چکیده [English]

One of the important steps in designing and implementation of tunneling projects is analyzing and managing the risks from the viewpoint of geotechnical risks. Second part of the Emamzadeh Hashem tunnel is one of the greatest civil projects in Iran that has faced with serious and important challenges in design because of the poor geological structure and geotechnical condition in excavation track. In this research, try to be after the geological studying in the tunnel excavation track, the overall risk amount be assessed by fault tree analysis. During this study, 4 important event including damage to the personnel, damage to the TBM, damage to the restraint system and deflection from the excavation track was identified and studied by using the geotechnical hazards like: encounter to fault and comminuted areas, squeezing, water inrush and tunnel instability. Results of the analysis show that reasons of the higher risk in this project are damage to the TBM and damage to restraint system. So, the higher risk should be reduced by doing some reducer proceedings like concrete injection. After these proceedings, the overall risk came to the poor area in the risk classification. According to the results, in this project, damage to the TBM and damage to restraint system have the highest risks and their risks should be reduced by doing some reducer proceedings like concrete injection. After these proceedings, the overall risk came to the poor area in the risk classification.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Geotechnical risks
  • Fault tree analysis
  • Emamzadeh Hashem Tunnel
  • Damage to the TBM
  • Risk management

مراجع

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