Evaluation of Location and Development Plan Management in New Settlements in Areas with Potential Flood Risk: A Case Study of the 560-Hectare Pardisan Site in Qom

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran

2 PhD graduatePhD graduate of geomorphological hazards, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran

3 Doctor of Geography and Urban Planning, Tehran University of Science and Research, Municipal Research Department, Qom, Iran

10.22091/cer.2025.11685.1586

Abstract

Due to their susceptibility to flooding, alluvial fan surfaces present unique challenges for development. The scope of Pardisan is also ex-panded in these areas, necessitating a comprehensive location and de-velopment plan. To address this, a robust methodology was employed, incorporating flood risk modeling using HEC-RAS and the Soil Conser-vation Service (SCS) method to calculate the flow rate of a 100-year flood event. In addition to the flood factor, 13 other criteria were includ-ed based on expert opinions to assess the suitability of the land for de-velopment. These criteria were analyzed using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in conjunction with fuzzy logic, facilitating an accurate comparison of potential sites for expansion. The findings reveal that, de-spite existing watershed management efforts, the current residential are-as in Pardisan remain vulnerable to flooding and inadequately address the volume and sediment challenges posed by potential flood events. This research underscores the deficiencies in current flood prevention measures and highlights the necessity for enhanced strategies and fur-ther studies. The results of the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) model identified the southeastern part of Pardisan as the most suitable area for development, which contradicts the current develop-ment plan. This recommendation is based on a thorough evaluation of the specified criteria and indicates significant potential for targeted and op-timal urban development. Finally, it is important to note that the inte-grated HEC-RAS-SCS-FAHP model can serve as a valuable roadmap for urban area development.

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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 17 February 2025

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