Investigating Uncertainty in Seismic Design Maps Based on Hazard and Fragility Curves

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Technology and Engineering, Qom University of Technology, Qom, Iran.

2 Professor of Earthquake Engineering & Engineering Seismology, IIEES, Tehran, IR IRAN.

10.22091/cer.2024.11285.1572

Abstract

All engineering measurements carry inherent uncertainty, whether acknowledged or not. If we add a type of risk metric as well as uncertainty quantification in the procedure of establishing the seismic design load applied to the structures, we will have a risk-informed approach for the resulting design load referred to as the risk-based seismic design hazard. For example, ASCE/SEI 43-05 standard uses a risk-based approach to prepare the seismic design spectra to be applied to the nuclear power plants (NPPs). This approach necessitates the propagation of uncertainty in ground motion model (i.e., the hazard curve), as well as probabilistic distribution of structural capacity levels (i.e., the fragility curve). The present research begins with the specifics of this approach, in particular the whole shape of the earthquake hazard curve and its integration with the structural fragility curve for estimating the seismic design load. The aim is to identify for a probabilistic model that can estimate the uncertainty of seismic design loads for a variety of engineering structures. This paper presents the estimated uncertainties of seismic design loads across the Iran map using the developed probabilistic model. The uncertainty, according to the study's assumptions, is at least 45% in terms of the coefficient of variation, indicating a significant value. The estimated variability in seismic design loads in the Iran region ranges from 45% to 90%.

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Civil Infrastructure Researches

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 28 December 2024

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