University of Qom Civil Infrastructure Researches 2783-140X 11 1 2025 05 22 Evaluation of Location and Development Plan Management in New Settlements in Areas with Potential Flood Risk: A Case Study of the 560-Hectare Pardisan Site in Qom Evaluation of Location and Development Plan Management in New Settlements in Areas with Potential Flood Risk: A Case Study of the 560-Hectare Pardisan Site in Qom 15 34 3329 10.22091/cer.2025.11685.1586 FA Seyed Mohammad Hossein Dehnad Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Qom, Qom, Iran. 0000-0001-5045-8499 Abolfazl Faraji Mondared Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. 0009-0005-6122-2082 Mohammad Aghazadeh Doctor of Geography and Urban Planning, Tehran University of Science and Research, Municipal Research Department, Qom, Iran 0009-0001-6224-5201 Journal Article 2024 11 22 Due to their susceptibility to flooding, alluvial fan surfaces present unique challenges for development. The scope of Pardisan is also expanded in these areas, necessitating a comprehensive location and development plan. To address this, a robust methodology was employed, incorporating flood risk modeling using HEC-RAS and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method to calculate the flow rate of a 100-year flood event. In addition to the flood factor, 13 other criteria were included based on expert opinions to assess the suitability of the land for development. These criteria were analyzed using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in conjunction with fuzzy logic, facilitating an accurate comparison of potential sites for expansion. The findings reveal that, despite existing watershed management efforts, the current residential areas in Pardisan remain vulnerable to flooding and inadequately address the volume and sediment challenges posed by potential flood events. This research underscores the deficiencies in current flood prevention measures and highlights the necessity for enhanced strategies and further studies. The results of the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) model identified the southeastern part of Pardisan as the most suitable area for development, which contradicts the current development plan. This recommendation is based on a thorough evaluation of the specified criteria and indicates significant potential for targeted and optimal urban development. Finally, it is important to note that the integrated HEC-RAS-SCS-FAHP model can serve as a valuable roadmap for urban area development. Due to their susceptibility to flooding, alluvial fan surfaces present unique challenges for development. The scope of Pardisan is also expanded in these areas, necessitating a comprehensive location and development plan. To address this, a robust methodology was employed, incorporating flood risk modeling using HEC-RAS and the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method to calculate the flow rate of a 100-year flood event. In addition to the flood factor, 13 other criteria were included based on expert opinions to assess the suitability of the land for development. These criteria were analyzed using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in conjunction with fuzzy logic, facilitating an accurate comparison of potential sites for expansion. The findings reveal that, despite existing watershed management efforts, the current residential areas in Pardisan remain vulnerable to flooding and inadequately address the volume and sediment challenges posed by potential flood events. This research underscores the deficiencies in current flood prevention measures and highlights the necessity for enhanced strategies and further studies. The results of the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) model identified the southeastern part of Pardisan as the most suitable area for development, which contradicts the current development plan. This recommendation is based on a thorough evaluation of the specified criteria and indicates significant potential for targeted and optimal urban development. Finally, it is important to note that the integrated HEC-RAS-SCS-FAHP model can serve as a valuable roadmap for urban area development. https://cer.qom.ac.ir/article_3329_0374973a939b023afba96866b2eb4144.pdf